New private home sales rebound in Nov - by The Straits Times

Sengkang Grand Residences, a 99-year leasehold condo next to Buangkok MRT station, sold 235 of the 280 units offered at its launch last month.PHOTO: CDL

Sales of new private homes picked up strongly last month despite the start of the year-end holiday period and amid a property glut, data showed yesterday.

Developers sold 1,147 units last month - excluding executive condominiums (ECs) - 23.2 per cent more than in October but 4.5 per cent fewer than in November last year.

If ECs were included, 1,168 units were sold last month, a 21.9 per cent increase from October but 3 per cent lower than a year ago, the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) data noted.

Developers launched 740 private homes for sale last month, down 17 per cent from October and 44.9 per cent fewer than the 1,342 in November last year. There were no ECs launched last month.

Last month's take-up was led by projects in suburban areas, known as outside central region, with 608 sales, followed by 351 in the city fringes or rest of central region, and 188 in prime areas or core central region.

The best-seller was the 680-unit Sengkang Grand Residences, which launched last month. The 99-year leasehold condo next to Buangkok MRT station sold 235 of the 280 units offered at a median price of $1,741 per sq ft (psf).

The 296-unit One Holland Village Residences in a prime district sold 87 of the 126 units launched at a median price of $2,606 psf.

Three previously launched projects did well last month - Parc Esta with 102 sales, Jadescape with 60 and Parc Botannia at 59.

There have been 9,547 units, excluding ECs, sold so far this year, out of 10,751 launched. This already exceeds the 8,795 units moved for the whole of last year.

"We estimate that between 9,500 and 10,000 units could be sold this year," said Ms Christine Sun, head of research at OrangeTee & Tie.

"We anticipate that the next wave of inbound capital may continue to enter Singapore's property market next year with more Chinese capital flowing south."

Ms Sun added that mortgage rates may remain low or go lower next year, which would help housing demand to "cruise" at current levels: "As such, we estimate that between 9,000 and 9,800 new homes, excluding ECs, could be transacted in 2020."

Mr Desmond Sim, CBRE's research head for South-east Asia, noted that 51 projects have been launched this year - the busiest in the past five years.

He said most new launches this year have had a take-up of less than 50 per cent, so developers are expected to focus on clearing existing inventory while remaining prudent in land bidding.

URA data for last month also shows that the accumulated number of new private residential units launched but unsold stands at 4,375, or 4,748 if ECs are included.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore warned last month that oversupply in the private market threatens to push down prices. There were 31,948 unsold private homes from projects with planning approval as of Sept 30, which could take nearly four years to clear.

Private home prices rose 7.9 per cent last year but consultants expect them to rise by just 2 to 3.5 per cent this year, after the July 2018 cooling measures were implemented.

Ann Williams

PUBLISHED

DEC 17, 2019, 5:00 AM SGT

source: the straits times

3-room versus 4-room versus 5-room: Which is the Better Investment? - 99.co

Yes, yes, we know HDB flats should be homes first and retirement funds second, etc. But let’s be honest: everyone wants to know what the big pay-off could be, besides shelter from the elements. Here’s a look at the numbers:

Which flat type appreciates better?

To find some answers, we looked at price movements of 3-room, 4-room, and 5-room HDB flats over a period of 15 years. Starting from Singapore in general, here’s what we found:

3-room HDB flats have appreciated by around 69 per cent. The average price of a resale 3-room flat today stands at around $299,000, up from an average of $176,800 back in 2004.

4-room flats have appreciated by around 78 per cent. The average price of a resale 4-room flat is now around $425,275, up from around $238,300 in 2004.

5-room flats lag just slightly behind 3-room flats, appreciating by around 68.57 per cent. The typical price today is around $526,850, up from around $312,500 on 2004.

As such, we can see that 4-room flats show the highest appreciation, while 3-room and 5-room flats lag behind at roughly the same pace.

Downtown core HDB flats

There aren’t many HDB flats in the downtown core, and no data on anything besides 3-room and 4-room flats. But we can see some of the numbers:

3-room flats here shot up 82.8 per cent between 2004 to 2011, after which there’s no further data. For 5-room flats, prices rose at the same pace – about 82.78 per cent. The average 5-room flat price in the downtown core is around $650,300, up from a mere $355,800 back in 2004.

(3-room flats in the area stood at around $434,000 in 2011, up from around $237,540 back in 2004).

North region HDB flats

For the north region, we looked at resale HDB prices in District 25 (includes Admiralty and Woodlands)

3-room flats in the north appreciated around 59.5 per cent. Prices here stand at around $256,800, up from $151,435 back in 2004.

4-room flats rose 43.25 per cent. Current prices are around $326,780, up from around $228,100 in 2004.

5-room flats rose around 41.4 per cent. Prices are at around $403,836, up from around $273,700 in 2004.

North-east region HDB flats

For the north-east region, Seletar is actually the proposed regional centre. We use District 19 (Hougang, Punggol, Sengkang) HDB flats as a reference point, due the large population in the district.

3-room flats in the north-east appreciated 84.6 per cent, standing at around $312,725. This is up from around $169,400 in 2004.

4-room flats rose 80 per cent, at around $422,600 at present. That’s up from $227,000 in 2004.

5-room flat prices noticeably lagged in this region, rising just around 65.2 per cent. They’re at around $502,540, up from around $304,228.

East side HDB flats

For the east, we use District 18 (Pasir Ris, Tampines) HDB flats as the reference point.

3-room flats in the east appreciated 66.3 per cent, standing at about $332,570. This is up from around $182,300 in 2004.

4-room flats here appreciated 67.2 per cent. The average price now is around $423,000, up from around $243,370.

5-room climbed about 62.5 per cent, to about $510,441. That’s up from around $314,000.

West side HDB flats

For the west side of Singapore, we use District 22 (Jurong, Tuas, Boon Lay) HDB flats as our reference point.

3-room flats in the west have appreciated around 56 per cent since 2004. Current prices are at around $258,000, up from $165,320 a decade and a half ago.

4-room flat prices rose about 60 per cent, standing at around $367,580. This is up from around $228,800, 15 years ago.

5-room flat prices rose about 56.5 per cent, and are at around $448,370 today. This is up from around $278,600 in 2004.

Note that appreciation across all three flat types were quite uniform in the east and west. So if you’re buying an HDB flat in these two regions, note that your property appreciation is broadly similar regardless of flat size.

If you’re viewing your first flat as an investment, it may make sense to buy smaller

Many Singaporeans aspire toward a 5-room as their first property purchase. This is often driven by the impression that 5-room flats have the best resale prospects. This could be thanks to news reports of million-dollar flats, which tend to be the larger ones.

But Pinnacle@Duxton, or DBSS flats, or rare maisonettes should not be considered in the same category as the typical 5-room (in fact, some investors refuse to even think of these as “real” HDB flats, due to deep fundamental differences).

If you’re viewing your first flat as an investment, it may make sense to buy smaller

We can also see, from the numbers, that smaller flats tend to appreciate better. In terms of gain, 3-room and 4-room flats mostly beat their 5-room counterparts across the island (although the gains between 3-room and 4-room are pretty narrow overall).

This suggests that, if your first flat is meant to be just a stepping stone, you might want to consider a smaller unit. Apart from a shot at better gains, you also face a lower initial cash outlay. The same can hold true for those who plan to downgrade when they retire (although of course, space a bigger consideration for these longer term buyers).

8 months ago · 5 min read · by Ryan Ong



Source: 99.co (18 Dec 2019)

Singapore HDB Median Resale Prices Chart By Town & Flat Type (3rd Quarter 2019) - HDB

Photo by Lukas from Pexels

The median price is the fiftieth percentile amount of HDB resale flat purchases. This means that half of the flats transacted were purchased at amounts above the median price, and half of the flats were purchased at amounts below the median price. These figures are based on resale flat transactions recorded for the quarter, and sorted by town and flat type.

• 3-Room, 4-Room, 5-Room & Executive

• 3-Room HDB

Top 5 Town for 3-Room Median Resale Price

1. Punggol - S$356,500.00
2. Marine Parade - S$347,500.00
3. Sengkang - S$340,00.00
4. Tampines - S$330,00.00
5. Kallang/Whampoa - S$321,500.00

• 4-Room HDB

Top 5 Town for 4-Room Median Resale Price

1. Central - S$890,000.00
2. Queenstown - S$739,00.00
3. Bukit Merah - S$710,000.000
4. Bishan - S$561,000.00
5. Toa Payoh - S$557,500.00

• 5-Room HDB

Top 5 Town for 5-Room Median Resale Price

1. Queenstown - S$832,500.00
2. Bukit Merah - S$810,000.000
3. Bishan - S$750,000.00
4. Toa Payoh - S$723,500.00
5. Kallang/Whampoa - S$690,000.00

• Executive HDB

Top 5 Town for Executive Median Resale Price

1. Hougang - S$667,000.00
2. Tampines - S$650,000.00
3. Pasir Ris - S$630,00.00
4. Bukit Panjang - S$580,000.00
5. Sengkang - S$570,000.00

Here are the notes and legends for the symbols used in the chart

• For cases where there are less than 20 resale transactions in the quarter for the particular town and flat type. The median prices of these cases are not shown as they may not be representative
• The data excluded transactions that may not accurately reflect the market price, i.e. resale of part shares, resale between related parties, cases under the Conversion Scheme, resale of terrace flats, and converted flats
• The figures are rounded to the nearest hundred dollars

Data source: HDB (14 Dec 2019)

MATURE VS NON-MATURE ESTATES: WHICH ONE TRUMPS THE OTHER? - Redbrick

The maturity of an estate is often one of the key factors that people take into account when they are purchasing a property but many of you may also ask how mature an estate must be to be considered as a mature estate.

Typically, an estate that has been around for more than 20 years would be considered as a matured one and those that have been built in recent years would be considered as a non-mature estate. Generally, most people would prefer mature estates over non-mature ones due to the amenities available in an estate. However, there are actually many differences between the two and we shall see if mature estate still has a competitive edge as before.

Before we dive deeper, here is a list of the mature and non-mature estates.

Mature Estates	Non-mature Estates
Ang Mo Kio Bedok Bishan Bukit Merah Bukit Timah Central Clementi Geylang Kallang Marine Parade Pasir Ris Queenstown Serangoon Tampines Toa Payoh	Bukit Batok Bukit Panjang Choa Chu Kang Hougang Jurong East Jurong West Punggol Sembawang Sengkang Woodlands Yishun

1. Price

The price of mature estates is usually higher than non-mature ones since mature estates usually have more comprehensive amenities which most buyers prefer when they are purchasing a property. This is also one of the reasons why most of the million-dollar HDBs are found in mature estates. Even if all other factors are similar, the price of properties in mature estates might be approximately 10-15% higher than their non-mature counterparts.

2. Remaining Lease

Homeownership is usually only a 99-year leasehold; however, the maturity of the estate and the remaining lease that it has posses an inverse relationship. This would mean that the more mature the estate, the less time you have to live in a particular home in that estate.

Most Singaporeans also share a common consensus that it is harder to sell off an aged property since buyers would prefer not to buy an aged property as compared to a newer one with a higher remaining lease. Though the government has made changes with the regulations with regards to the usage of CPF and HDB housing loan which might help to ease the problem of having lower demand for older properties, the changes still do not favour the younger buyers and will mainly benefit the older buyers.

Since the value of the property is directly correlated to the property age, the older the property, the lower the value of the property. However, in Singapore, we still see the rise of million-dollar HDB resale flats in mature estate resale markets and a relatively higher price for HDBs in mature estates. Therefore, Singaporeans who prefer older properties for their surrounding amenities are still willing to fork out a high price despite having a shorter remaining lease.

3. Growth Potential

According to the URA master plan, we would be able to see that the government is determined to develop every inch of our land. This is evident from the new URA master plan 2019 to develop local hubs and the rise of the new business district in Jurong which is a non-mature estate. Therefore, there is far more potential growth for the non-matured estates as compared to the matured ones.

Though mature estates are located in well-developed neighbourhoods, it would not be long before the non-mature estate will be able to enjoy the same amenities as well. An example would be Sembawang which will be having a souped-up community centre called Bukit Canberra in 2020 and Punggol will also have a similar one in 2021.

With our urban landscape improving, there comes the rise of smart HDBs in the newer estates. HDB has also piloted selected Smart initiatives in Punggol Northshore and in some of the new public housing projects in Northshore, Bidadari and Tampines North.

With better amenities come better connectivity; the Land Transport Authority (LTA) is also executing an ambitious plan to double the size and scope of the Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) network by 2030. With enhance accessibility, it will further narrow the gap between the mature and non-mature estates.

Therefore, with the government’s effort in enhancing the liveability of Singapore, in the near future, mature estates may no longer have such a huge competitive edge of having better amenities, since those living in the non-mature estate may also enjoy the same.

Conclusion

With the consistent effort of the government to develop all parts of Singapore to make the country more liveable and sustainable, the lines between the mature and non-mature estates are slowly being blurred. Therefore, mature estates may start to lose their competitive edge of having better amenities since, in the near future, residents in non-mature estates would also be able to enjoy the same amenities and maybe even better than those in mature estates.

Want to find the best mortgage rate in town? Check out our free comparison service to learn more!

NOVEMBER 22, 2019 BY GLENN TEO

Source: Redbrick

Which HDB Towns Have Seen the Biggest Rise in Flat Values? - 99.co

These days, flats are seen as roofs over our heads rather than “retire rich in Thailand” investment packages. But we know some of you still have an eye toward upgrading, so we looked at overall flat appreciation over 15 years, in all the HDB towns:

Appreciation of flats across HDB towns since 2004:

Top 5 HDB towns

#1. Central – 189.4% (from $214,407 to $620,474)

#2. Queenstown – 156% (from $214,886 to $550,229)

#3. Bukit Merah – 145.4% (from $232,690 to $571,1o2)

#4. Bukit Timah – 129.8% (from $354,500 to $814,925)

#5. Bishan – 110.4% (from $300,537, $632,320)

Other HDB towns

Clementi – 108.9%

Kallang / Whampoa – 104.6%

Geylang – 103.5%

Serangoon – 91.7%

AMK – 84.1%

Hougang 82.8%

Bedok – 77.6%

Bukit Batok – 76.7%

Punggol – 76.5%

Bukit Panjang – 75.9%

Tampines – 74.4%

Jurong East – 73.6%

Toa Payoh – 72.9%

Yishun – 71.8%

Sengkang – 71.2%

Marine Parade – 70.1%

Pasir Ris – 69.5%

Jurong West – 67.2%

Sembawang – 50.3%

CCK – 49.7%

Woodlands – 49.7%

While many of the top spots aren’t surprising, it’s worth noting that Clementi comes very close to its neighbour Queenstown. Clementi might even come out on top in a few years: this is because the nearby Jurong Lake District and International Business Park will bring in more employees, and there’s likely to be some spillover benefits.

It’s also worth noting that the two other towns with appreciation of over 100 per cent are Kallang and Geylang, both neighbouring towns; and apart from developments like the Kallang Sports Hub, the two are under 10 minutes’ drive to the CBD.

But let’s take a closer look at the top five:

1. Central

In the central region, five-room flats were the main winners, appreciating 195 per cent over 15 years. Again, not a big surprise given how scarce and in-demand such units are. Smaller flats, such as three-room units, still managed to almost double in price (about 97 per cent increase over 15 years).

The question is, how likely is this to continue? Singapore is beginning to decentralise, with Jurong, Paya Lebar, Punggol, etc. each becoming individual business hubs. The future of Singapore may not be in the shape of a single, centralised area, which everyone rushes in and out of at 7am or 7pm. And with coming decades, the combination of decentralised business hubs, and lease decay, can make this area lose some of its luster.

That’s likely to be far in the future though, and owners of central flats can still look smug.

2. Queenstown

People sneer at Queenstown as the “old folk’s town”, because of the large elderly population (what do you expect? It’s the oldest HDB satellite town). But Queenstown is one of the most desired locations in Singapore. It’s about a 10 minute drive to the city centre, so residents are a short distance away from the Esplanade, Orchard, the CBD, etc.

Until the day comes when Singapore is truly decentralised, you can expect Central and Queenstown to stay at the top of the list. And in case you’re wondering, four-room flats seem to be the top winners in Queenstown, up around 114 per cent (that’s about $700,000).

3. Bukit Merah

Four-room flats are the top winners in the Bukit Merah area, up around 120.7 per cent since 2004. They outpace the appreciation of even their five-room counterparts (up just around 97 per cent over the same time period).  In more recent years, one of the biggest contributors to appreciation here is our hipster community.

Tiong Bahru – birthplace of the famed Tiong Bahru Bakery – is the Singaporean equivalent of Williamsburg in Brooklyn. Once an older and more run-down area, it’s been revived with avant-garde boutiques and trendy diners. We’re not sure how the older residents feel about that, but it’s great for resale flat values.

4. Bukit Timah

The main thing to know about Bukit Timah is that it has a ridiculous number of elite schools:

• Raffles Girl’s Primary School
• Henry Park Primary School
• Methodist Girls’ School
• Hwa Chong Institution
• Nanyang Girls High School
• National Junior College
• Ngee Ann Polytechnic

That’s one of the main reasons so many families want a home in this area. Bukit Timah also has an affluent demographic given that the area clusters a lot of landed properties and high-rent condominiums. Rental demand is solid, by the way, because it’s one of the few places that’s distinct from the concrete jungle of Singapore. The views appeal to foreigners, who can’t stand the urban density of say, Orchard.

5. Bishan

Bishan’s strength is its proximity to central Singapore, and in how developed the amenities are. Upper Thomson, Marymount, and Bishan East are all subzones in this area. Junction 8, Bishan North wet market, and Bishan Sports Centre (where the 2010 Youth Olympics was held) provide a ton of convenience; residents living in Bishan can stay in their town for months without feeling a need to venture out.

Also, Bishan is a common “second alternative” for those who can’t get the resale flats they want in more central areas.

An interesting quirk about Bishan is that three-room flats appreciated way better than their bigger counterparts. These units have appreciated from about $170,000 in 2004, to about $374,000 today. That’s an increase of around 120 per cent, whereas four and five room flats here saw increases of only about 90 per cent.

6 hours ago · 5 min read · by Ryan Ong

Source: 99.co (02 Dec 2019)

MAS Warns of Potential Downside Risks in the Singapore Property Market - 99.co

MAS is warning of a “large supply” of unsold homes, and coming economic uncertainty down the road. Here’s what to look out for:

A looming oversupply issue

“Look at how much Singaporeans love property. This construction boom will last forever”. – 2017

According to the MAS Financial Stability Review on 28th November, the rising number of unsold homes “could place downward pressure on prices in the medium term, if unaccompanied by a corresponding rise in demand”.

The report says there were 4,377 unsold units (excluding Executive Condominiums) in Q3 2019, which is more than twice the number of unsold units at the same time last year (there were just 2,172 unsold units in Q3 2018). MAS warns it’s likely to get worse, as developers launch new projects from the en-bloc frenzy of 2017.

Around 2017, I already mentioned there was a risk of a lot of unsold units coming on the market; this was due to the large number of (mainly) Chinese developers, with deep pockets, buying up every land plot in sight. Now, we’re going to see a lot of new launches in a market with tighter cooling measures (the most recent in 2018), and a tough economic climate.

Uncertain times ahead

We’re not going to point fingers, and blame any specific person for the economic uncertainty.

The MAS report notes that hiring has slowed, and there are now fewer job vacancies than unemployed persons. In addition, more workers are on shorter hours, or temporary lay-off (but retrenchments remain low).

The ongoing economic situation could result in an extended period of low GDP growth. Wages aren’t likely to rise while trade tensions rage, and that could make it harder to service home loans. It’s unlikely that we’ll see a lot of fire sales though, since MAS long ago took the step of imposing the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR).

(Under the TDSR framework, a home buyer’s monthly loan repayment, plus any other debt obligations, cannot exceed 60 per cent of their monthly income).

MAS says the mortgage servicing ratio for the median household remains below 60 per cent, under a severe stress scenario of a 10 per cent fall in income, and a 250

MAS said its simulations indicate that the households’ debt servicing burden remains manageable under stress situations. The mortgage servicing ratios for the median household remains below 60 per cent, under a severe stress scenario of a 10 per cent fall in income and a 250-basis-point increase in mortgage rates.

(Translation: If incomes fall 10 per cent and mortgage rates rise 2.5 per cent, the typical household will still only pay less than 60 per cent of its monthly income to service the home loan).

But lower-income households with private properties could find they’re paying 70 per cent or more of their monthly income to cover the mortgage; that’s not a financially healthy state to be in.

What does all this mean for home buyers?

“And this is where we’d have some furniture, if we had any money left.”

If you’re hoping for a sharp drop in prices and panicked sales, you’ll be disappointed. With regard to resale, Singaporean households have a lot of holding power; as mentioned above, most of them won’t be in dire straits, even if wages aren’t growing. Most of them are quite capable of waiting out this situation, and selling at some better time.

As for developers, they’ll feel the pinch for sure; but there just isn’t much room for them to lower prices. The en-bloc craze in 2017 also drove land prices up, due to aggressive bidding. Some of the developments coming from that era are already sold on thin margins.

As such, the main expectation home buyers can have is that prices are likely to stay flat for a while.

We also shouldn’t discount the growing interest of foreign investors

Despite higher ABSD, foreign buyers are still lured by Singapore property; particularly luxury real estate. As mentioned in this article, Singapore real estate is seen as a safe haven by investors, both local and abroad. In addition, one of closest competing real estate markets – Hong Kong – is currently experiencing political turmoil.

As such, we may see increased demand from foreign investors, as we become the literal and metaphorical port in a storm.

What’s your take on the property market situation? Voice your thoughts in our comments section or on our Facebook community page.

Looking for a property? Find the home of your dreams today on Singapore’s largest property portal 99.co! You can also access a wide range of tools to calculate your down payments and loan repayments, to make an informed purchase.

2 days ago · 4 min read · by Ryan Ong

Source: 99.co (02 Dec 2019)